Regional divergence deepens; Rhine nears record-low levels
Urea markets are splitting by region. Europe and North Africa are firm and inland European logistics are under pressure from record-low Rhine levels, while the US Gulf barge market stays steady.
Europe and North Africa lead
- Egypt’s Mopco sold 10,000 t of granular at $535/t fob for October loading to Europe — a fresh, real-money anchor for European and North African granular.
- French large granular was offered at €540/t fca La Pallice and above on tight warehouse stocks.
- Argentina took September-loading granular at low-$520s/t cfr.
Brazil and Nigeria
- Brazil granular was steady at $480–500/t cfr, with non-China origin material holding the upper end.
- In Nigeria, Lekki offers pushed the range to $490–500/t fob.
The Rhine bottleneck
The Rhine at Kaub measured just 15 cm on 21 September and was forecast to fall to around 6 cm by 25 September, near the record low of 5 cm. Standard barges on the upper Rhine were expected to stop; at Duisburg (136 cm) and Cologne (51 cm) loadings were already limited to 400–500 t, and Cologne standard barges would become impossible.
Inland freight stayed elevated, adding cost and delay to deliveries into the European hinterland.
Energy and demand
- TTF front-month gas dipped about 7.5% intraday to €73.78/MWh but stayed elevated on a weekly view; NW European urea cash cost of production rose roughly $68.59 to $706.13/t.
- In the US, Nola barges were steady at $466.5–471.5/st fob, while US corn futures rose 15¢ to $5.43/bu, a multi-year high, underpinning agricultural demand.
India waits
The market is waiting on a new Indian tender; RCF’s previous round carried a final loading date of 24 September. A fresh float would be the next clear price catalyst.
The figures in this note are indicative and based on our own market monitoring. They are not offers from Eternal Victory Chemical. Our own prices are quoted per inquiry and confirmed in the sales contract.
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