Global urea splits as Nola slumps, LatAm holds firm
Global urea markets are showing extreme regional divergence. The US Gulf is the only clearly weaker region, while South America and West Africa stay firm and European buyers keep looking for imported material.
Nola falls, but not the curve
Nola barges dropped about $16.50/st to $450–455/st fob — the only clearly softer market worldwide. Yet December ($458/st) and January ($463/st) forward levels sat at a premium to prompt, signalling the market is not bearish on the longer end.
South America and West Africa hold firm
- Brazil granular was $480–505/t cfr, with the high end up $5/t on the week.
- Argentina dealt $525–530/t cfr, above the low-$520s seen earlier in the week.
- Nigeria granular firmed into $490–500/t fob (around $2.5/t higher).
Europe: cheap gas-to-nitrogen, but less local output
TTF spot was around €73.94/MWh, and the nitrogen-to-gas ratio of 0.16:1 was the lowest since end-2022 — making European production relatively cheap on paper. In practice, though, Agrofert was considering cuts to European ammonia output, and the EU temporarily removed its 6.5% urea import tariff, giving buyers cheaper alternatives on a nutrient basis.
Hormuz still a watch item
The US and Iran were only discussing a “framework to start talks”, with no meeting scheduled, and Iran signalled it wants to keep partial control of Hormuz flows. The situation is non-blocking but keeps a risk premium in freight, which we do not fix into our offers.
Read-through for buyers
Demand is sharply split: firm in Turkey, Latin America and Southeast Asia, soft in the US. We are prioritising Latin American and Turkish business and watching Nola and the Brazilian high end for any convergence.
The figures in this note are indicative and based on our own market monitoring. They are not offers from Eternal Victory Chemical. Our own prices are quoted per inquiry and confirmed in the sales contract.
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